This Week in Hospitality Marketing Live Show 250 May 22nd 2020
This Week In Hospitality Marketing Live Show 250
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Co-Hosts
Mellisa Kavanagh
Stuart Butler
Stephanie Smith
Edward StOnge
Tristan Heaword
Ben Hanley
Show Notes
00:02 — Fuel Travel version 4 of their travel propensity for travel.
Topics
Top Story
1. CBRE Hotels Research: Full demand recovery by late 2022
Brands & Product
2. Hilton’s Nassetta: 3 to 4 years for recovery, but “no less optimistic” about travel
3. AHLA lays out ‘Roadmap to Recovery’
4. How do you socially distance at a Vegas casino? Caesars shares the new look of gambling
Intermediaries & Distribution
5. Expedia CEO Details Anti-Google Game Plan
6. Trivago outlines steps to preserve cash as revenue drops 33%, income down €222M
7. Why OTAs Are Your Best Friend
Marketing & Strategy
8. McKinsey Survey: US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis [Editor’s Note – Hotels/Resorts rank last…]
9. Travel Intentions Pulse Survey (TIPS): Impact of Covid-19
10. Who’s Booking Hotel Rooms Right Now? Vacation Optimists.
Tech & Finance
11. Redfin CEO: Vacation real-estate markets are ‘toast’ because of the pandemic as Airbnb owners rush to offload their homes
12. Debt Woes Mount for Hotel Company Tied to Coronavirus Relief Loan Controversy
13. 5 Barriers to Business Travel’s Recovery
Boop!
14. A Maryland restaurant’s new tables have huge inner tubes that make social distancing look fun
Ruh-Roh…
15. Lovely: Las Vegas Responds To Depressed Demand By Hiking Resort Fees…
Maybe it’s the reports of the US hospitality industry experiencing 51% unemployment clouding my judgment, but I’m just not sure I buy the forecast of a full demand recovery for the US hotel industry by late 2022 in this week’s Top Story.
Why? Glad you asked.
First, here is the 2019 baseline for US hotel occupancy:
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Occ% – 66.1%
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ADR – $131.21
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RevPAR – $86.76
For 2020, CBRE is forecasting:
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Occ% – 41.0%
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ADR – $101.67
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RevPAR – $41.67
And for 2022, CBRE predicts:
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Occ% – 65.0%
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ADR – $122.93
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RevPAR – $79.95
Now, let’s recall that following 9/11, the lowest 12-month moving average for occupancy percentage was 58.5%. It took 3 years for 12-month moving average of US Occ% to recover 5 points to 63.5%.
Following the global financial crisis, there was a four year span for ADRs to return to pre-disruption levels.
Look, I sincerely hope they are right. I REALLY do. But I just don’t see any evidence of a massive rebound that accelerates at a much faster rate than the last two.
Perhaps most telling is one paragraph inserted in the lower section of the article that reads:
“A critical factor driving the lodging recovery is a reduction in the number of new COVID-19 cases. In the event of a prolonged need for social distancing and a persistent occurrence of new COVID-19 cases, CBRE has developed a forecast of a hypothetical downside scenario in which the recovery in RevPAR to precrisis levels is pushed out to 2025.”